The Cheltenham Festival is centre stage right now. However, as anticipation builds for the Grand National 2025, it is worth having an early look to see who is likely to be involved and who looks to have the best shot of winning Europe’s most valuable jumps race.
A Heavily Oversubscribed Race
This year’s Grand National began with 94 entries, highlighting just how much demand there is to take part in this contest. With a prize fund of £1m, it is little wonder why! The initial 94 entries were cut to 81 following the latest declaration stage. This number is still too high though as the contest can only fit a maximum of 34 runners. This figure used to be 40 but Aintree reduced the amount last year in order to improve safety.
Narrowing It Down
From all the horses left standing at final declaration stage, the best-rated 34 will officially book their place in the big race at Aintree. By ‘best rated’ we simply mean the horses with the highest Official Rating (OR). These ratings correspond with the numbers each horse is allocated, so top-rated I Am Maximum with his official mark of 167 takes number 1. At the very bottom of the list, you have Placenet (81) who has an OR of 130.
Horses just outside the top 34 have a realistic chance of featuring as they only need a couple of withdrawals to make the cut. Those further down the field though have little chance as this is not a race that sees many horses pulling out with just a few weeks to go. As a result, we have a good sense of who will be featuring in this year’s contest.
Reserve System Scrapped in 2023
It is also worth pointing out that Aintree scrapped the reserve system in 2023. This system enabled up to four reserves to be called up in the event there were non-runners following the 48-hour declaration stage. With that system longer in place, if there are any non-runners this year, the event will simply take place under the maximum capacity with however many runners remain.
Who Are the Early Market Leaders?
Here is the current state of the market, as of mid-March. It will be interesting to see how much this changes by the time of the race.
| Number | Horse | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Inothewayurthinkin | 7/1 |
| 29 | Intense Raffles | 9/1 |
| 1 | I Am Maximus | 12/1 |
| 26 | Iroko | 12/1 |
| 3 | Nick Rockett | 14/1 |
| 17 | Stumptown | 14/1 |
| 24 | Perceval Legallois | 20/1 |
| 45 | Vanillier | 20/1 |
I Am Maximus
We start by mentioning defending champion I Am Maximus who is looking to become the second horse since Red Rum to win this race more than once. Rated eight pounds higher this time around, he will begin the contest as top weight. Incidentally, the last horse to win this race with top weight was Red Rum himself, back in 1974.
Inothewayurthinkin
Gavin Cromwell’s Inothewayurthinkin heads the early betting thanks to a couple of big wins at the end last season. These include the Cheltenham Festival’s Kim Muir, plus a 3m 1f Grade 1 event at Aintree.
Iroko
For the Aintree victory, the seven-year-old beat Iroko by four lengths. Distance may be a concern for the French horse though as he has never won a race further than 2m 4½f. He also holds an entry for the Cheltenham Gold Cup so it will be interesting to see how that goes.
Intense Raffles
There are no such distance concerns for Intense Raffles, winner of the Irish Grand National on heavy going last April. He began this season poorly but did offer some improvements when upped in distance at Fairyhouse last month.
Nick Rockett
Nick Rockett was the horse that denied him victory at the Fairyhouse Grade 3 as he successfully held off the challenge from close behind. That secured back-to-back wins for the Willie Mullins runner who has proven stamina and a solid jumping record.
Perceval Legallois
Perceval Legallois also boasts back-to-back victories, which is particularly impressive as they came in such large fields (25 and 27). The most recent win did come over hurdles but all other recent experience has been over the bigger obstacles.
Stumptown
Stablemate Stumptown is the third Gavin Cromwell runner to feature high among the betting. The seven-year-old has more chase experience than many other leading contenders (20 outings over fences) and has won his last four starts, most recent being the highly competitive Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham.
Vanillier
The remaining horse featuring at 20/1 or shorter is Vanillier, yet another Cromwell horse. Securing 14th place in last year’s Grand National, he is unlikely to feature this time around as he is too far down the list. His rating of 151 saw him comfortably qualify last year but his mark has since dropped to 147 following a poor start to the season. Even without Vanillier, Cromwell still has an extremely strong cohort as he seeks his first Grand National winner.